You may not know: forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic

An independent research group has proposed using an algorithm to assess how the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam may develop, based on internationally standard models.

A representative of the research group said the method can be applied down to district, commune and ward level. In use, the model has produced good estimates and forecasts.

The COVID-19 forecast map has three parts:
- Part 1: assessing risk before an outbreak occurs, or when an outbreak has just been detected
- Part 2: tracking the epidemic in real time, assessing the level of transmission and the scale of infection risk for an individual in a given area.
- Part 3: forecasting the number of cases the health system may detect in future if the current control measures stay in place. That forecast is used to prepare logistics — the number of intensive care beds or hospital admissions — and to assess the risk of each locality's health system being overwhelmed

The results show that the model assesses and forecasts the COVID-19 situation in Vietnam fairly accurately, so it can be treated as a tool for planning epidemic control.

The COVID-19 forecast map: https://onyx.vn/covid19

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source: Nhan Dan TV, the "you may not know" segment,
from minute 13, https://nhandantv.vn/khds-d192252.htm